炭鉱のカナリアは鳴いているか？
日経225の小天井がわかる方法
ハイイルード債でもVIXでもコモディティでも無いですが、データを解析していたら今年の日経平均の小天井を奇麗に取れる方法が有ったため(今のところですが・・・)データに残します。毎日更新予定です。
- 天井指標1 特定の8つの条件が完全一致すると100、天井指標2より少し早めに反応しだす。
- 天井指標2 特定の105の条件が完全一致すると100、条件が105個あるのに小天井では完全一致してきました
過去データより検証
天井とシグナルが100%一致しました。
| 日付 | 天井指標1 | 天井指標2 | 天井 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/6/18 | 0 | 21.9047 | |
| 2021/6/17 | 0 | 25.7142 | |
| 2021/6/16 | 0 | 50.4761 | |
| 2021/6/15 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/6/14 | 100 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/6/11 | 50 | 35.238 | |
| 2021/6/10 | 0 | 49.5238 | |
| 2021/6/9 | 0 | 37.1428 | |
| 2021/6/8 | 0 | 49.5238 | |
| 2021/6/7 | 12.5 | 45.7142 | |
| 2021/6/4 | 0 | 47.619 | |
| 2021/6/3 | 25 | 67.619 | |
| 2021/6/2 | 0 | 71.4285 | |
| 2021/6/1 | 0 | 56.1904 | |
| 2021/5/31 | 12.5 | 21.9047 | |
| 2021/5/28 | 75 | 88.5714 | |
| 2021/5/27 | 0 | 26.6666 | |
| 2021/5/26 | 0 | 35.238 | |
| 2021/5/25 | 0 | 50.4761 | |
| 2021/5/24 | 0 | 61.9047 | |
| 2021/5/21 | 0 | 56.1904 | |
| 2021/5/20 | 0 | 55.238 | |
| 2021/5/19 | 0 | 20 | |
| 2021/5/18 | 0 | 82.8571 | |
| 2021/5/17 | 0 | 35.238 | |
| 2021/5/14 | 0 | 77.1428 | |
| 2021/5/13 | 0 | 15.238 | |
| 2021/5/12 | 0 | 6.6666 | |
| 2021/5/11 | 0 | 11.4285 | |
| 2021/5/10 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/5/7 | 100 | 72.3809 | |
| 2021/5/6 | 0 | 79.0476 | |
| 2021/4/30 | 100 | 42.8571 | |
| 2021/4/28 | 0 | 43.8095 | |
| 2021/4/27 | 0 | 39.0476 | |
| 2021/4/26 | 0 | 47.619 | |
| 2021/4/23 | 0 | 27.619 | |
| 2021/4/22 | 0 | 88.5714 | |
| 2021/4/21 | 0 | 2.8571 | |
| 2021/4/20 | 0 | 15.238 | |
| 2021/4/19 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/4/16 | 100 | 56.1904 | |
| 2021/4/15 | 0 | 60 | |
| 2021/4/14 | 37.5 | 32.3809 | |
| 2021/4/13 | 100 | 52.3809 | |
| 2021/4/12 | 87.5 | 47.619 | |
| 2021/4/9 | 37.5 | 54.2857 | |
| 2021/4/8 | 37.5 | 28.5714 | |
| 2021/4/7 | 0 | 72.3809 | |
| 2021/4/6 | 100 | 17.1428 | |
| 2021/4/5 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/4/2 | 100 | 63.8095 | |
| 2021/4/1 | 75 | 44.7619 | |
| 2021/3/31 | 75 | 39.0476 | |
| 2021/3/30 | 50 | 40.9523 | |
| 2021/3/29 | 12.5 | 63.8095 | |
| 2021/3/26 | 0 | 87.619 | |
| 2021/3/25 | 0 | 82.8571 | |
| 2021/3/24 | 0 | 5.7142 | |
| 2021/3/23 | 0 | 22.8571 | |
| 2021/3/22 | 0 | 37.1428 | |
| 2021/3/19 | 0 | 56.1904 | |
| 2021/3/18 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/3/17 | 0 | 46.6666 | |
| 2021/3/16 | 100 | 64.7619 | |
| 2021/3/15 | 87.5 | 78.0952 | |
| 2021/3/12 | 75 | 67.619 | |
| 2021/3/11 | 75 | 74.2857 | |
| 2021/3/10 | 75 | 44.7619 | |
| 2021/3/9 | 50 | 80.9523 | |
| 2021/3/8 | 0 | 61.9047 | |
| 2021/3/5 | 0 | 54.2857 | |
| 2021/3/4 | 0 | 27.619 | |
| 2021/3/3 | 0 | 67.619 | |
| 2021/3/2 | 0 | 40 | |
| 2021/3/1 | 0 | 83.8095 | |
| 2021/2/26 | 0 | 10.4761 | |
| 2021/2/25 | 0 | 76.1904 | |
| 2021/2/24 | 0 | 25.7142 | |
| 2021/2/22 | 0 | 72.3809 | |
| 2021/2/19 | 0 | 26.6666 | |
| 2021/2/18 | 0 | 13.3333 | |
| 2021/2/17 | 0 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/2/16 | 100 | 100 | 小天井 |
| 2021/2/15 | 100 | 64.7619 | |
| 2021/2/12 | 0 | 55.238 | |
| 2021/2/10 | 25 | 55.238 | |
| 2021/2/9 | 25 | 45.7142 | |
| 2021/2/8 | 100 | 80.9523 | |
| 2021/2/5 | 100 | 77.1428 | |
| 2021/2/4 | 0 | 46.6666 | |
| 2021/2/3 | 62.5 | 76.1904 | |
| 2021/2/2 | 0 | 80 | |
| 2021/2/1 | 0 | 69.5238 | |
| 2021/1/29 | 0 | 13.3333 | |
| 2021/1/28 | 0 | 24.7619 | |
| 2021/1/27 | 0 | 60 | |
| 2021/1/26 | 0 | 23.8095 | |
| 2021/1/25 | 50 | 61.9047 | |
| 2021/1/22 | 12.5 | 34.2857 | |
| 2021/1/21 | 62.5 | 65.7142 | |
| 2021/1/20 | 0 | 46.6666 | |
| 2021/1/19 | 0 | 55.238 | |
| 2021/1/18 | 0 | 30.4761 | |
| 2021/1/15 | 0 | 22.8571 | |
| 2021/1/14 | 75 | 47.619 | |
| 2021/1/13 | 0 | 59.0476 | |
| 2021/1/12 | 37.5 | 49.5238 | |
| 2021/1/8 | 100 | 80.9523 | |
| 2021/1/7 | 75 | 81.9047 | |
| 2021/1/6 | 0 | 66.6666 | |
| 2021/1/5 | 0 | 48.5714 | |
| 2021/1/4 | 25 | 24.7619 |
条件の公開はしません(105個の条件が一致するのは2の105乗の確率です)
2021/6/19以降も正しいか検証中
2021/6/19以降は毎日検証していきます。
| 日付 | 天井指標1 | 天井指標2 | 天井 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/11/26 | 0 | 8.653846 | |
| 2021/11/25 | 50 | 59.6153 | |
| 2021/11/24 | 0 | 24.0384 | |
| 2021/11/22 | 0 | 40.0000 | |
| 2021/11/19 | 37.5 | 58.0952 | |
| 2021/11/18 | 0 | 31.4285 | |
| 2021/11/17 | 100 | 29.5738 | |
| 2021/11/16 | 75 | 48.5714 | |
| 2021/11/15 | 75 | 60.0000 | |
| 2021/11/12 | 0 | 76.1904 | |
| 2021/11/11 | 0 | 42.8571 | |
| 2021/11/10 | 0 | 27.6190 | |
| 2021/11/09 | 12.5 | 10.4761 | |
| 2021/11/08 | 0 | 48.5714 | |
| 2021/11/05 | 62.5 | 23.8095 | |
| 2021/11/04 | 100 | 80.9523 | |
| 2021/11/02 | 29.5238 | 0 | |
| 2021/11/01 | 100 | 85.7142 | |
| 2021/10/29 | 25 | 43.8095 | |
| 2021/10/28 | 0 | 20.9523 | |
| 2021/10/27 | 75.0 | 34.2857 | |
| 2021/10/26 | 100 | 80.0000 | |
| 2021/10/25 | 12.5 | 35.2380 | |
| 2021/10/22 | 62.5 | 50.4761 | |
| 2021/10/21 | 0 | 20.9523 | |
| 2021/10/20 | 75 | 47.6190 | |
| 2021/10/19 | 75 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/10/18 | 75 | 58.0952 | |
| 2021/10/15 | 75 | 90.4761 | |
| 2021/10/14 | 0 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/10/13 | 0 | 25.7142 | |
| 2021/10/12 | 0 | 31.4285 | |
| 2021/10/11 | 0 | 82.7619 | |
| 2021/10/08 | 0 | 84.7619 | |
| 2021/10/07 | 0 | 47.6190 | |
| 2021/10/06 | 0 | 63.8095 | |
| 2021/10/05 | 0 | 13.3333 | |
| 2021/10/04 | 0 | 40.0000 | |
| 2021/10/01 | 0 | 10.4761 | |
| 2021/9/30 | 0 | 37.1428 | |
| 2021/9/29 | 0 | 13.3333 | |
| 2021/9/28 | 0 | 49.5238 | |
| 2021/9/27 | 0 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/9/24 | 0 | 95.2380 | |
| 2021/9/22 | 0 | 11.4285 | |
| 2021/9/21 | 0 | 9.5238 | |
| 2021/9/17 | 0 | 57.1478 | |
| 2021/9/16 | 0 | 45.7142 | |
| 2021/9/15 | 0 | 11.4285 | |
| 2021/9/14 | 0 | 78.0952 | |
| 2021/9/14 | 0 | 78.0952 | |
| 2021/9/13 | 0 | 62.8571 | |
| 2021/9/10 | 0 | 84.7619 | |
| 2021/9/9 | 0 | 29.5238 | |
| 2021/9/8 | 0 | 69.5238 | |
| 2021/9/7 | 12.5 | 65.7142 | |
| 2021/9/6 | 12.5 | 65.7142 | |
| 2021/9/3 | 50 | 82.8571 | |
| 2021/9/2 | 0 | 36.1904 | |
| 2021/9/1 | 62.5 | 77.1428 | |
| 2021/8/31 | 100 | 68.5714 | |
| 2021/8/30 | 100 | 81.9047 | |
| 2021/8/27 | 0 | 38.0952 | |
| 2021/8/26 | 75 | 58.0952 | |
| 2021/8/25 | 0 | 45.8571 | |
| 2021/8/24 | 75 | 74.2857 | |
| 2021/8/23 | 0 | 88.5714 | |
| 2021/8/20 | 0 | 20 | |
| 2021/8/19 | 0 | 11.4285 | |
| 2021/8/18 | 0 | 60.9523 | |
| 2021/8/17 | 25.0 | 28.5714 | |
| 2021/8/16 | 12.5 | 9.5238 | |
| 2021/8/13 | 87.5 | 54.2857 | |
| 2021/8/12 | 37.5 | 55.2380 | |
| 2021/8/11 | 87.5 | 73.3333 | |
| 2021/8/10 | 87.5 | 57.1428 | |
| 2021/8/6 | 37.5 | 52.3809 | |
| 2021/8/5 | 0 | 39.0476 | |
| 2021/8/4 | 12.5 | 27.6190 | |
| 2021/8/3 | 0 | 31.4285 | |
| 2021/8/2 | 0 | 79.0476 | |
| 2021/7/30 | 0 | 10.4761 | |
| 2021/7/29 | 0 | 53.3333 | |
| 2021/7/28 | 0 | 20.9523 | |
| 2021/7/27 | 37.5 | 73.3333 | |
| 2021/7/26 | 87.5 | 79.0476 | |
| 2021/7/21 | 0 | 82.8571 | |
| 2021/7/20 | 0 | 18.0952 | |
| 2021/7/19 | 0 | 8.5714 | |
| 2021/7/16 | 0 | 56.1904 | |
| 2021/7/15 | 0 | 11.4285 | |
| 2021/7/14 | 0 | 29.5238 | |
| 2021/7/13 | 87.5 | 77.1428 | |
| 2021/7/12 | 25 | 95.2380 | |
| 2021/7/9 | 0 | 30.4761 | |
| 2021/7/8 | 25 | 14.2857 | |
| 2021/7/7 | 0 | 7.6190 | |
| 2021/7/6 | 25.0 | 58.0952 | |
| 2021/7/5 | 62.5 | 24.7619 | |
| 2021/7/2 | 87.5 | 84.7619 | |
| 2021/7/1 | 87.5 | 38.0952 | |
| 2021/6/30 | 50 | 37.1428 | |
| 2021/6/29 | 0 | 14.2857 | |
| 2021/6/28 | 100 | 58.0952 | |
| 2021/6/25 | 100 | 86.6666 | |
| 2021/6/24 | 62.5 | 45.7142 | |
| 2021/6/23 | 62.5 | 48.5714 | |
| 2021/6/22 | 0 | 92.3809 | |
| 2021/6/21 | 0 | 1.9047 |
後から見返すと6/28と25は天井指数１のほうが小天井あててますね
